By Associate Professor Udoy Saikia, Flinders University, Australia, Timor-Leste NHDR 2018 Lead Author

Research, more specifically evidence based research is a cornerstone of our mission at Flinders University. Through research, and research-led teaching, we build, develop and further strengthen the knowledge and capabilities that improve lives and enhance society as a whole. Our collaborative work with Timor-Leste for the country’s 4^th National Human Development Report (NHDR) is based on this mission. The team of researchers (Associate Professor Udoy Saikia, Dr James Chalmers and Associate Professor Gour Dasvarma) along with Dr Merve Hosgelen (who completed her PhD at Flinders University) has been conducting research in Timor-Leste for more than a decade.

In this process the team has had the opportunity to work very closely not only with the policy makers at the highest level but also with other members of the civil society, communities, NGOs and various international organisations. The best part of our work in this NHDR project was the opportunity to carry out our work through various consultation processes at different levels including our research proposal presentation to the Council of Ministers, Government of Timor-Leste and also to the members of the national parliament. The engagement through such consultation process has further strengthened our in-depth understanding of the development dynamics in Timor-Leste.

The analysis that the report provides is aligned with the UN Secretary-General’s Report on the post-2015 development agenda, which calls for ‘a transformative policy approach’. Transformative approaches arise when it becomes clear that old paradigms cannot solve important problems, or that old paradigms have begun to create more problems than they solve. Globally, there are increasing problems of inequality, economic exclusion, distrust of government, and environmental damage. Through this project we have investigated economic development strategies that could navigate these concerns in the context of Timor-Leste.

Timor-Leste has one of the youngest populations in the world. Therefore, the well-being of its youth is crucial for its nation building process. While there are enormous challenges ahead with education and employment, our research has shown that the overall attitude of the Timorese youth towards life is highly positive. This will definitely help in turning the country’s demographic window of opportunity, resulting from a predominantly high proportion of working age people, into a demographic dividend. However, as the report points out clearly, - this dividend will not be automatic; rather it will depend on implementation of adequate policies by the government without any delay.  For this reason, it is critical that the Government of Timor-Leste and its development partners make use of evidence-based research to invest in the youth to translate the country’s youth bulge into a demographic dividend.

This will help sustain peace and development in the country. The first trigger for the ‘demographic dividend’ is set when the population of non-working age (dependent) people declines relative to the numbers of working-age people. This can happen if couples produce fewer children each year leading to a change in the age structure of the population which ultimately creates more workers relative to non-workers. However, as mentioned before, such favourable changes in the age-structure must be accompanied by judicious policies on education and training, health, and innovative employment creation to make use of the demographic window of opportunity.   The latest demographic data for Timor-Leste clearly indicates a noticeable and continuing decline in the country’s fertility rate, a pre-condition for the opening of a demographic window of opportunity. The Government of Timor-Leste must grab this opportunity.

Human Development in Timor-Leste- still big challenges ahead

The 4^th National Human Development Report of Timor-Leste included measures of human development (Human Development Index or HDI) and gender development (Gender development Index or GDI). The GDI measures the extent of human development for females compared to that of males. The values of HDI and GDI vary from 0 to 1. The UNDP classifies human development in countries as Very High Human Development (HDI between 0.800 and 1.000), High Human Development (HDI between 0.700 and 0.799), Medium Human Development (HDI between 0.550 and 0.699) and Low Human Development (HDI between a theoretical 0.000 and 0.549).

As of 2015, Norway has the highest human development (HDI of 0.949) and Central African Republic the lowest (HDI of 0.352).Australia is ranked second along with Switzerland (HDI of 0.939)

The HDI of Timor-Leste is found to be 0.585, putting it at the lower end of Medium Human Development. The HDI for females in Timor-Leste is a little lower than that for females, rendering the GDI at 0.905, which means that here is high parity of human development between males and females. A unique feature of this research is the computation of HDI for an age-segment of the population, namely that of its youth aged between 15 and 35 years. The HDI and GDI for the youth are 0.600 and 0.914 respectively. The youth of Timor-Leste fare slightly better than the total population in terms of HDI and GDI because they have better capability for a healthy life (due to being young) and they have a better capability to access education (particularly compared to the older population. The youth could have had even a higher HDI value, but for their poorer capability to have a decent standard of living (due to a high rate of unemployment).

The challenges with human development in Timor-Leste are manifold. First, in order to lift the HDI to a High Human Development or even to a higher level of Medium Human Development, one would need to lift all three components of the HDI, i.e., improve life expectancy at birth by increasing people’s capability to lead a long and healthy life, increase people’s access to education by increasing meaningful years of schooling, thereby also increasing people’s expected years of schooling and raise people’s capability to have a decent standard of living by increasing their per capita income. The same challenges apply to the youth of Timor-Leste, especially with their income, which can be increased by providing them with meaningful employment and by equitably sharing with them the fruits of development reaped so far. The Youth Wellbeing Survey has shown the ways and means to lift the human development of the youth.